The AI Capability Curve: What Leaders Must Understand Before 2030
The AI Capability Curve
From ChatGPT’s launch to the integration era, how AI capability has evolved and where it’s heading.
The Steep Ramp
2022 to 2025
The Capability Explosion
2026 to 2029
The Integration Plateau
2030 to 2035
Phase 1
Exponential from Zero
2022 to 2025
From novelty chatbot to reasoning engines. Multimodal capability, code generation and early tool use emerged in a short window. The steepest gains came from a very low base.
Phase 2
Applied Capability Surge
2026 to 2029
Benchmarks begin to plateau but practical capability accelerates. Multi-agent orchestration, persistent context and better execution reshape how knowledge work gets done.
Phase 3
Embedding Everywhere
2030 to 2035
The bottleneck shifts from model performance to integration. Trust, governance, adoption and infrastructure define outcomes. Capability rises, but the gradient flattens.